What is the Polymarket Swing Detector?

The Polymarket Swing Detector monitors equity-related prediction markets on Polymarket for sudden probability swings of 5% or more, helping traders discover potential trading alpha from earnings and stock price movements.

How often is swing data updated?

Swing data is refreshed every 5 minutes by continuously polling Polymarket equity prediction markets and detecting significant price movements.

What counts as a swing?

A swing is detected when the probability of an equity prediction market changes by 5% or more within a short time window.

Polymarket Swings

Equity prediction market swing detection

Recent Swings

Updated: 1 minute ago • Threshold: ≥5%

Market ▼	Δ Prob ▼	Conf ▼	Ticker ▼	Trade Idea	Time ▼
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? AGG (2)	↓ -53.9%	89%	$SPY	Despite fears of a hike, corporate pricing power and underlying robust macro data suggest the broad market will find support, limiting downside risk even if rates adjust upward.	1 minute ago
Trade Blueprint Speculative $SPY Despite fears of a hike, corporate pricing power and underlying robust macro data suggest the broad market will find support, limiting downside risk even if rates adjust upward. Entry $708.12 - $715.24 Target $782.85 Stop $683.21 🤖 gemma4:e4b Constituent Strikes ↓ -66.7% 0% → 0% Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? ↓ -40.0% 0% → 0% Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? AGG (5)	↑ +5.9%	75%	$SPY	High volume negative swing suggests deep policy uncertainty regarding key Fed appointments and monetary policy trajectory, acting as a drag on general market risk appetite.	22 minutes ago
Trade Blueprint High $SPY High volume negative swing suggests deep policy uncertainty regarding key Fed appointments and monetary policy trajectory, acting as a drag on general market risk appetite. Entry $707.69 - $714.81 Target $654.35 Stop $743.26 🤖 gemma4:e4b Constituent Strikes ↑ +18.2% 1% → 1% Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? ↑ +66.7% 0% → 0% Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? ↓ -66.7% 0% → 0% Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair? ↓ -66.7% 0% → 0% Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? ↓ -66.7% 0% → 0% Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? AGG (4)	↑ +35.1%	75%	$QQQ	Bitcoin's price action is a leading indicator for risk appetite. The sharp swing suggests over-extension and potential panic selling, creating a tactical reversal bounce opportunity aligned with high-beta tech growth.	1 minute ago
Trade Blueprint High $QQQ Bitcoin's price action is a leading indicator for risk appetite. The sharp swing suggests over-extension and potential panic selling, creating a tactical reversal bounce opportunity aligned with high-beta tech growth. Entry $654.28 - $660.86 Target $739.77 Stop $624.69 🤖 gemma4:e4b Constituent Strikes ↑ +200.0% 0% → 0% Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? ↑ +8.0% 12% → 14% Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? ↓ -66.7% 0% → 0% Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? ↓ -12.5% 0% → 0% Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? AGG (2)	↑ +7.4%	62%	$MSFT	The sharp crypto pullback suggests extreme risk-off sentiment. We anticipate institutional money rotating out of highly speculative assets and into established, resilient mega-cap tech leaders like MSFT.	17 minutes ago
Trade Blueprint High $MSFT The sharp crypto pullback suggests extreme risk-off sentiment. We anticipate institutional money rotating out of highly speculative assets and into established, resilient mega-cap tech leaders like MSFT. Entry $427.21 - $431.51 Target $483.03 Stop $407.89 📈 $FDV 🤖 gemma4:e4b Constituent Strikes ↑ +5.8% 34% → 36% MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? ↑ +11.6% 2% → 2% MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	↓ -16.9%	46%	$NVDA	The large directional move on BTC reflects deep, long-term institutional capital flows betting on crypto adoption, which drives demand for associated infrastructure, such as AI chips.	1 day ago
Trade Blueprint High $NVDA The large directional move on BTC reflects deep, long-term institutional capital flows betting on crypto adoption, which drives demand for associated infrastructure, such as AI chips. Entry $212.08 - $214.22 Target $239.79 Stop $202.49 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 4% → 3% Vol: $4852018
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on April 29? AGG (3)	↓ -21.2%	44%	$NVDA	The decreasing price action signals weakening speculative interest and cooling risk appetite in the broader market, suggesting a near-term pullback in high-growth, speculative semiconductor names.	1 minute ago
Trade Blueprint Speculative $NVDA The decreasing price action signals weakening speculative interest and cooling risk appetite in the broader market, suggesting a near-term pullback in high-growth, speculative semiconductor names. Entry $212.08 - $214.22 Target $191.83 Stop $221.68 🤖 gemma4:e4b Constituent Strikes ↑ +266.7% 0% → 1% Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on April 29? ↑ +66.7% 0% → 0% Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on April 29? ↓ -50.0% 0% → 0% Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on April 29?
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on April 28? AGG (3)	↓ -98.2%	44%	$SPY	The moderate upward swing indicates underlying bullish sentiment for the S&P 500, suggesting potential support and consolidation above key index levels.	17 hours ago
Trade Blueprint High $SPY The moderate upward swing indicates underlying bullish sentiment for the S&P 500, suggesting potential support and consolidation above key index levels. Entry $707.34 - $714.44 Target $767.76 Stop $686.01 📈 $SPY 🤖 gemma4:e4b Constituent Strikes ↓ -99.5% 10% → 0% S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on April 28? ↓ -98.0% 2% → 0% S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on April 28? ↓ -97.5% 2% → 0% S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on April 28?
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 30? AGG (2)	↑ +24.0%	42%	$QQQ	The massive sell-off in the prediction market indicates extreme bearish positioning on BTC success, signaling a potential contrarian long opportunity and bounce in high-growth, risk-on assets.	17 minutes ago
Trade Blueprint High $QQQ The massive sell-off in the prediction market indicates extreme bearish positioning on BTC success, signaling a potential contrarian long opportunity and bounce in high-growth, risk-on assets. Entry $651.50 - $658.04 Target $720.25 Stop $628.58 🤖 gemma4:e4b Constituent Strikes ↑ +100.0% 0% → 0% Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 30? ↓ -62.5% 0% → 0% Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 30?
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $1B?	↑ +106.2%	42%	$MSFT	Strong capital flow into enterprise-grade technology platforms and specialized infrastructure, validating tech leadership positions.	21 hours ago
Trade Blueprint High $MSFT Strong capital flow into enterprise-grade technology platforms and specialized infrastructure, validating tech leadership positions. Entry $424.27 - $428.53 Target $490.36 Stop $400.82 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 16% → 33% Vol: $254326
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $150 Week of April 27 2026? AGG (2)	↑ +137.5%	42%	$PLTR	Deep penetration into mission-critical government and enterprise AI services driving high valuation multiple expansion.	7 minutes ago
Trade Blueprint High $PLTR Deep penetration into mission-critical government and enterprise AI services driving high valuation multiple expansion. Entry $140.47 - $141.89 Target $155.30 Stop $132.71 📈 $PLTR 🤖 gemma4:e4b Constituent Strikes ↑ +104.1% 24% → 50% Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $150 Week of April 27 2026? ↑ +172.7% 16% → 45% Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $153 Week of April 27 2026?
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 Week of April 27 2026? AGG (2)	↑ +90.9%	42%	$NVDA	Extreme positive momentum (185.7% swing) suggests strong continued upward pressure driven by AI demand and institutional buying.	37 minutes ago
Trade Blueprint High $NVDA Extreme positive momentum (185.7% swing) suggests strong continued upward pressure driven by AI demand and institutional buying. Entry $212.08 - $214.22 Target $245.12 Stop $202.49 📈 $NVDA 🤖 gemma4:e4b Constituent Strikes ↑ +185.7% 18% → 50% Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 Week of April 27 2026? ↑ +72.2% 27% → 46% Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $204 Week of April 27 2026?
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 28?	↓ -99.8%	41%	$SPY	Strong crypto conviction and defined price ranges suggest robust macro liquidity and improving risk sentiment supporting broad US indices.	20 hours ago
Trade Blueprint High $SPY Strong crypto conviction and defined price ranges suggest robust macro liquidity and improving risk sentiment supporting broad US indices. Entry $711.58 - $718.74 Target $786.68 Stop $682.98 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 24% → 0% Vol: $81297
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	↑ +128.6%	40%	$GOOGL	The swing reflects high conviction in Google's dominance in advanced reasoning AI models (Gemini), suggesting continued revenue outperformance and market leadership in the AI computing space.	1 hour ago
Trade Blueprint High $GOOGL The swing reflects high conviction in Google's dominance in advanced reasoning AI models (Gemini), suggesting continued revenue outperformance and market leadership in the AI computing space. Entry $347.46 - $350.96 Target $401.59 Stop $331.75 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 0% → 1% Vol: $28189
Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	↑ +100.0%	40%	$META	Meta's aggressive investment in Llama and foundational AI infrastructure positions it strongly in the enterprise AI layer, significantly increasing the probability of achieving top-tier model status.	1 hour ago
Trade Blueprint High $META Meta's aggressive investment in Llama and foundational AI infrastructure positions it strongly in the enterprise AI layer, significantly increasing the probability of achieving top-tier model status. Entry $667.87 - $674.59 Target $771.91 Stop $630.96 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 0% → 1% Vol: $12334
Will NVIDIA reach $228 in April?	↑ +123.7%	40%	$NVDA	Sustained demand for AI compute infrastructure maintains high multiples and accelerates growth far beyond current consensus targets.	19 hours ago
Trade Blueprint High $NVDA Sustained demand for AI compute infrastructure maintains high multiples and accelerates growth far beyond current consensus targets. Entry $209.19 - $211.29 Target $252.29 Stop $197.63 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 4% → 9% Vol: $3937
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 6 and June 12?	↑ +200.0%	40%	$SPY	High confidence in Fed Chair stability reduces policy uncertainty, supporting broad equity market strength.	1 hour ago
Trade Blueprint High $SPY High confidence in Fed Chair stability reduces policy uncertainty, supporting broad equity market strength. Entry $708.12 - $715.24 Target $768.61 Stop $679.65 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 0% → 0% Vol: $3772
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 1?	↑ +1200.0%	40%	$NVDA	The parabolic momentum in crypto assets (SOL) signals extreme risk-on sentiment and capital flowing into decentralized, next-gen digital infrastructure, benefiting foundational semiconductor providers.	7 hours ago
Trade Blueprint High $NVDA The parabolic momentum in crypto assets (SOL) signals extreme risk-on sentiment and capital flowing into decentralized, next-gen digital infrastructure, benefiting foundational semiconductor providers. Entry $212.08 - $214.22 Target $245.12 Stop $200.36 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 0% → 1% Vol: $2182
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on April 29?	↑ +500.0%	40%	$QQQ	The rapid decline in speculative crypto assets suggests immediate risk-off sentiment, correlating to tech sector pullback.	6 hours ago
Trade Blueprint High $QQQ The rapid decline in speculative crypto assets suggests immediate risk-off sentiment, correlating to tech sector pullback. Entry $654.28 - $660.86 Target $604.96 Stop $683.87 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 0% → 0% Vol: $1224
Will Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?	↑ +109.5%	40%	$SBUX	High conviction volume spike suggests immediate buying pressure anticipating positive earnings catalysts (beats), implying a continuation move.	16 hours ago
Trade Blueprint High $SBUX High conviction volume spike suggests immediate buying pressure anticipating positive earnings catalysts (beats), implying a continuation move. Entry $96.80 - $97.78 Target $111.88 Stop $92.43 📈 $SBUX 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 48% → 100% Vol: $1210
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 Week of April 27 2026?	↑ +235.3%	40%	$GOOGL	The massive shift in prediction market sentiment suggests strong underlying institutional bullish conviction regarding Alphabet's long-term growth and AI monetization potential.	3 hours ago
Trade Blueprint High $GOOGL The massive shift in prediction market sentiment suggests strong underlying institutional bullish conviction regarding Alphabet's long-term growth and AI monetization potential. Entry $348.09 - $351.58 Target $393.56 Stop $332.34 📈 $GOOGL 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 17% → 57% Vol: $400
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $382.50 Week of April 27 2026?	↑ +168.4%	40%	$MSFT	Structural demand for AI cloud services and enterprise integration provides a powerful long-term growth narrative.	17 hours ago
Trade Blueprint High $MSFT Structural demand for AI cloud services and enterprise integration provides a powerful long-term growth narrative. Entry $427.25 - $431.55 Target $493.81 Stop $401.49 📈 $MSFT 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 19% → 51% Vol: $400
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 28?	↓ -99.0%	40%	$QQQ	The massive swing decline in Bitcoin indicates heightened macro risk-off sentiment. $QQQ, as a proxy for high-beta technology exposure, is likely to follow this deleveraging trend.	9 hours ago
Trade Blueprint High $QQQ The massive swing decline in Bitcoin indicates heightened macro risk-off sentiment. $QQQ, as a proxy for high-beta technology exposure, is likely to follow this deleveraging trend. Entry $654.28 - $660.86 Target $604.96 Stop $687.16 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 5% → 0% Vol: $41826
Will Solana reach $85 on April 28?	↓ -98.7%	40%	$SMH	The massive 100% swing suggests intense, momentum-driven, risk-on speculation that is bleeding into high-beta technology proxies.	9 hours ago
Trade Blueprint High $SMH The massive 100% swing suggests intense, momentum-driven, risk-on speculation that is bleeding into high-beta technology proxies. Entry $488.83 - $493.75 Target $564.98 Stop $461.81 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 4% → 0% Vol: $8605
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 28?	↓ -96.8%	39%	$SMH	Moderate but sustained positive momentum in altcoins suggests underlying strength in digital infrastructure and semiconductor demand.	21 hours ago
Trade Blueprint Speculative $SMH Moderate but sustained positive momentum in altcoins suggests underlying strength in digital infrastructure and semiconductor demand. Entry $484.33 - $489.19 Target $535.44 Stop $462.42 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 2% → 0% Vol: $9885
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) beat quarterly earnings?	↓ -87.5%	35%	$JPM	The steep collapse in the 'beat earnings' probability indicates severe negative market sentiment regarding the financial health of fintech peers, predicting widespread disappointment.	1 minute ago
Trade Blueprint High $JPM The steep collapse in the 'beat earnings' probability indicates severe negative market sentiment regarding the financial health of fintech peers, predicting widespread disappointment. Entry $309.96 - $313.08 Target $286.60 Stop $323.98 📈 $SOFI 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 0% → 0% Vol: $11433
Will XRP reach $2.00 in April?	↓ -78.6%	32%	$COIN	Extreme positive sentiment swing suggests robust risk-on liquidity flowing into crypto-exposed assets, betting on high volatility and adoption rates.	7 minutes ago
Trade Blueprint High $COIN Extreme positive sentiment swing suggests robust risk-on liquidity flowing into crypto-exposed assets, betting on high volatility and adoption rates. Entry $193.13 - $195.07 Target $229.04 Stop $180.51 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 1% → 0% Vol: $102425
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 30?	↓ -72.6%	29%	$QQQ	Strong negative momentum seen in the failed price range consensus suggests generalized risk-off sentiment affecting high-growth tech and crypto correlations.	7 minutes ago
Trade Blueprint High $QQQ Strong negative momentum seen in the failed price range consensus suggests generalized risk-off sentiment affecting high-growth tech and crypto correlations. Entry $654.28 - $660.86 Target $591.81 Stop $690.45 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 13% → 3% Vol: $1266
Will Google reach $375 in April?	↑ +59.6%	24%	$AAPL	The sharp decrease in the Google prediction market suggests market disappointment or increased scrutiny/competition, signaling a potential weakness in mega-cap tech stocks.	12 minutes ago
Trade Blueprint High $AAPL The sharp decrease in the Google prediction market suggests market disappointment or increased scrutiny/competition, signaling a potential weakness in mega-cap tech stocks. Entry $269.41 - $272.11 Target $249.10 Stop $282.94 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 10% → 16% Vol: $15436
Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2026 meeting?	↑ +55.6%	22%	$XLF	Increased market pricing on rate hikes favors the financial sector, as banks are expected to benefit from higher net interest margins despite economic slowdown risks.	7 minutes ago
Trade Blueprint High $XLF Increased market pricing on rate hikes favors the financial sector, as banks are expected to benefit from higher net interest margins despite economic slowdown risks. Entry $51.60 - $52.12 Target $58.34 Stop $49.27 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 0% → 1% Vol: $4834
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 29?	↓ -50.0%	21%	$MSFT	The underlying smart contract infrastructure theme points toward increasing institutional demand for decentralized technology, mirroring enterprise adoption cycles.	31 minutes ago
Trade Blueprint Speculative $MSFT The underlying smart contract infrastructure theme points toward increasing institutional demand for decentralized technology, mirroring enterprise adoption cycles. Entry $427.13 - $431.43 Target $472.21 Stop $403.52 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 0% → 0% Vol: $166926
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	↓ -8.3%	21%	$NVDA	The high volume coupled with stagnant price movement suggests macro uncertainty is capping bullish bets, leading to potential profit-taking in overextended growth names.	7 minutes ago
Trade Blueprint Speculative $NVDA The high volume coupled with stagnant price movement suggests macro uncertainty is capping bullish bets, leading to potential profit-taking in overextended growth names. Entry $212.08 - $214.22 Target $191.83 Stop $223.81 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 1% → 1% Vol: $2240539
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on April 29?	↑ +50.0%	20%	$NVDA	The swing captures extreme risk-on, high-beta speculative capital rotation into major altcoin ecosystems (Solana), which correlates strongly with generalized tech enthusiasm and compute spending.	1 minute ago
Trade Blueprint Speculative $NVDA The swing captures extreme risk-on, high-beta speculative capital rotation into major altcoin ecosystems (Solana), which correlates strongly with generalized tech enthusiasm and compute spending. Entry $209.36 - $211.46 Target $248.28 Stop $193.58 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 0% → 0% Vol: $5544
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April 29?	↓ -50.0%	20%	-	Analyzing structure...	1 minute ago
Shift: 2% → 1% Vol: $2169
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 30?	↓ -50.0%	20%	-	Analyzing structure...	1 minute ago
Shift: 0% → 0% Vol: $1810