What is the Polymarket Swing Detector?

The Polymarket Swing Detector monitors equity-related prediction markets on Polymarket for sudden probability swings of 5% or more, helping traders discover potential trading alpha from earnings and stock price movements.

How often is swing data updated?

Swing data is refreshed every 5 minutes by continuously polling Polymarket equity prediction markets and detecting significant price movements.

What counts as a swing?

A swing is detected when the probability of an equity prediction market changes by 5% or more within a short time window.

Polymarket Swings

Equity prediction market swing detection

Recent Swings

Updated: 1 minute ago • Threshold: ≥5%

Market ▼	Δ Prob ▼	Conf ▼	Ticker ▼	Trade Idea	Time ▼
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? AGG (3)	↑ +49.3%	100%	$SPY	The steep swing suggests unwinding of extreme rate expectations. Betting long on broad equities to capitalize on underlying corporate resilience and cyclical recovery despite perceived 'higher for longer' interest rates.	5 hours ago
Trade Blueprint High $SPY The steep swing suggests unwinding of extreme rate expectations. Betting long on broad equities to capitalize on underlying corporate resilience and cyclical recovery despite perceived 'higher for longer' interest rates. Entry $735.32 - $742.72 Target $812.92 Stop $690.98 🤖 gemma4:e4b Constituent Strikes ↑ +200.0% 0% → 0% Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? ↓ -28.6% 0% → 0% Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? ↑ +7.1% 21% → 23% Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? AGG (5)	↑ +13.0%	67%	$QQQ	High probability of future Fed rate cuts significantly lowers discount rates and fuels valuations, particularly for growth-oriented tech stocks represented by the Nasdaq 100.	21 minutes ago
Trade Blueprint High $QQQ High probability of future Fed rate cuts significantly lowers discount rates and fuels valuations, particularly for growth-oriented tech stocks represented by the Nasdaq 100. Entry $672.06 - $678.82 Target $759.87 Stop $641.67 🤖 gemma4:e4b Constituent Strikes ↑ +11.1% 0% → 0% Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↑ +11.1% 0% → 0% Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↑ +25.0% 0% → 0% Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↑ +10.0% 0% → 1% Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↑ +5.9% 1% → 1% Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July? AGG (3)	↑ +3.6%	51%	$QQQ	The extreme volatility in crypto markets often signals generalized risk-on/risk-off sentiment shifts. A long bias on QQQ captures broader tech liquidity inflows, which are highly correlated with speculative digital asset performance.	11 minutes ago
Trade Blueprint High $QQQ The extreme volatility in crypto markets often signals generalized risk-on/risk-off sentiment shifts. A long bias on QQQ captures broader tech liquidity inflows, which are highly correlated with speculative digital asset performance. Entry $666.95 - $673.65 Target $754.09 Stop $630.08 🤖 gemma4:e4b Constituent Strikes ↑ +26.7% 8% → 10% Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July? ↓ -66.7% 0% → 0% Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in July? ↑ +14.8% 1% → 2% Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?
Will PayPal say "Bitcoin" during earnings call? AGG (6)	↑ +647.9%	50%	$PYPL	The massive reversal implies the market has priced in significant doubt regarding PayPal's crypto narrative integration or commercial viability, predicting a disappointing earnings report.	9 hours ago
Trade Blueprint High $PYPL The massive reversal implies the market has priced in significant doubt regarding PayPal's crypto narrative integration or commercial viability, predicting a disappointing earnings report. Entry $55.71 - $56.26 Target $49.27 Stop $58.78 🤖 gemma4:e4b Constituent Strikes ↑ +6111.1% 0% → 28% Will PayPal say "Bitcoin" during earnings call? ↑ +148.9% 4% → 11% Will PayPal say "Anthropic" or "Claude" during earnings call? ↓ -99.7% 17% → 0% Will the earnings call not air? ↓ -99.5% 10% → 0% Will PayPal say "Google" during earnings call? ↓ -98.5% 3% → 0% Will PayPal say "Cash Back" or "Cashback" during earnings call? ↓ -96.7% 2% → 0% Will PayPal say "Regulation" or "Regulator" or "Regulatory" during earnings call?
Will Boeing say "Guidance" during earnings call? AGG (5)	↑ +255.6%	48%	$BA	The high momentum reflects strong investor confidence in the aviation sector's rebound; a positive guidance call validates improved industrial stability and operational recovery.	7 hours ago
Trade Blueprint High $BA The high momentum reflects strong investor confidence in the aviation sector's rebound; a positive guidance call validates improved industrial stability and operational recovery. Entry $216.46 - $218.63 Target $244.74 Stop $204.49 🤖 gemma4:e4b Constituent Strikes ↑ +132.5% 38% → 90% Will Boeing say "Guidance" during earnings call? ↑ +100.0% 0% → 1% Will Boeing say "Tariff" during earnings call? ↑ +590.0% 0% → 3% Will Boeing say "Iran" during earnings call? ↑ +444.4% 4% → 24% Will Boeing say "China" during earnings call? ↑ +350.0% 1% → 4% Will Boeing say "Fraud" during earnings call?
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 28?	↓ -99.8%	45%	$SPY	Record volume and increasing premium suggest substantial macro liquidity inflows supporting general market bullish sentiment.	8 hours ago
Trade Blueprint High $SPY Record volume and increasing premium suggest substantial macro liquidity inflows supporting general market bullish sentiment. Entry $733.68 - $741.05 Target $829.54 Stop $693.12 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 31% → 0% Vol: $365986
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on July 28? AGG (4)	↓ -91.6%	44%	$SPY	The large reduction in expected upward probability suggests cooling bullish momentum and potential mean reversion/profit-taking from broad market overextension.	4 hours ago
Trade Blueprint High $SPY The large reduction in expected upward probability suggests cooling bullish momentum and potential mean reversion/profit-taking from broad market overextension. Entry $737.63 - $745.05 Target $682.03 Stop $789.53 📈 $SPY 🤖 gemma4:e4b Constituent Strikes ↓ -94.7% 1% → 0% S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on July 28? ↓ -90.9% 1% → 0% S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on July 28? ↓ -90.9% 1% → 0% S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on July 28? ↓ -88.9% 0% → 0% S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on July 28?
Will XRP reach $1.80 in July? AGG (2)	↑ +96.2%	43%	$MSFT	The high conviction in future asset price targets (XRP) reflects systemic bullish sentiment and growing liquidity interest, which tends to favor mega-cap tech exposure.	1 minute ago
Trade Blueprint High $MSFT The high conviction in future asset price targets (XRP) reflects systemic bullish sentiment and growing liquidity interest, which tends to favor mega-cap tech exposure. Entry $396.85 - $400.83 Target $434.74 Stop $378.90 🤖 gemma4:e4b Constituent Strikes ↑ +200.0% 0% → 0% Will XRP reach $1.80 in July? ↑ +26.7% 2% → 2% Will XRP reach $1.40 in July?
Will annual inflation be 4.2% or more in July? AGG (2)	↑ +205.8%	42%	$XLE	High realized inflation suggests persistent demand for energy resources, favoring commodity producers and strengthening oil prices.	16 hours ago
Trade Blueprint High $XLE High realized inflation suggests persistent demand for energy resources, favoring commodity producers and strengthening oil prices. Entry $58.09 - $58.67 Target $65.68 Stop $54.88 🤖 gemma4:e4b Constituent Strikes ↑ +233.3% 0% → 0% Will annual inflation be 4.2% or more in July? ↑ +175.0% 0% → 1% Will annual inflation be 4.1% in July?
Will Apple say "Creator Studio" during earnings call? AGG (2)	↑ +66.2%	42%	$AAPL	The strong increase in implied value for developer tools suggests deep enthusiasm around AI integration into the professional workflow, which should translate to positive investor sentiment and stock price action.	6 minutes ago
Trade Blueprint High $AAPL The strong increase in implied value for developer tools suggests deep enthusiasm around AI integration into the professional workflow, which should translate to positive investor sentiment and stock price action. Entry $338.46 - $341.86 Target $391.18 Stop $319.75 🤖 gemma4:e4b Constituent Strikes ↑ +116.0% 12% → 27% Will Apple say "Creator Studio" during earnings call? ↑ +29.4% 8% → 11% Will Apple say "iPhone 18" during earnings call?
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 28?	↓ -99.9%	41%	$QQQ	The sharp negative swing suggests general risk-off sentiment and profit-taking following crypto volatility exhaustion. Tech growth is highly sensitive to global liquidity shocks, favoring short-term weakness in QQQ.	8 hours ago
Trade Blueprint Speculative $QQQ The sharp negative swing suggests general risk-off sentiment and profit-taking following crypto volatility exhaustion. Tech growth is highly sensitive to global liquidity shocks, favoring short-term weakness in QQQ. Entry $670.25 - $676.98 Target $619.73 Stop $710.66 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 35% → 0% Vol: $43897
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in July?	↑ +150.0%	40%	$AAPL	High conviction momentum swing fueled by positive sentiment and expectation that Apple will achieve strong performance against lofty price resistance levels.	11 hours ago
Trade Blueprint High $AAPL High conviction momentum swing fueled by positive sentiment and expectation that Apple will achieve strong performance against lofty price resistance levels. Entry $335.24 - $338.60 Target $379.04 Stop $320.07 📈 $AAPL 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 0% → 1% Vol: $3805
Will DoorDash (DASH) beat quarterly earnings?	↑ +1006.4%	40%	$AAPL	The massive swing suggests strong bullish sentiment regarding US consumer spending revival in the tech/e-commerce service sector, pointing to underlying momentum that supports major blue chips like Apple.	13 hours ago
Trade Blueprint High $AAPL The massive swing suggests strong bullish sentiment regarding US consumer spending revival in the tech/e-commerce service sector, pointing to underlying momentum that supports major blue chips like Apple. Entry $338.46 - $341.86 Target $382.68 Stop $326.55 📈 $DASH 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 2% → 26% Vol: $1550
Will the earnings call not air?	↑ +2134.2%	40%	$SPY	The extreme over-sell in this prediction market indicates high structural liquidity risk priced into the system. Betting on successful earnings releases (information flow) to stabilize systemic sentiment and trigger a mean reversion bounce.	8 hours ago
Trade Blueprint High $SPY The extreme over-sell in this prediction market indicates high structural liquidity risk priced into the system. Betting on successful earnings releases (information flow) to stabilize systemic sentiment and trigger a mean reversion bounce. Entry $735.32 - $742.72 Target $831.40 Stop $702.07 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 2% → 42% Vol: $574
Will Nvidia be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	↑ +300.0%	40%	$NVDA	Continued exponential demand for accelerated computing chips driven by global AI infrastructure buildout, solidifying market dominance.	18 hours ago
Trade Blueprint High $NVDA Continued exponential demand for accelerated computing chips driven by global AI infrastructure buildout, solidifying market dominance. Entry $195.54 - $197.50 Target $235.82 Stop $183.75 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 0% → 1% Vol: $539
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $84 in August?	↑ +1134.6%	40%	$NVDA	The massive price increase suggests acute speculative interest in AI data processing and government tech contracts (GovTech), themes strongly tied to semiconductor leaders.	10 hours ago
Trade Blueprint High $NVDA The massive price increase suggests acute speculative interest in AI data processing and government tech contracts (GovTech), themes strongly tied to semiconductor leaders. Entry $192.67 - $194.61 Target $222.69 Stop $182.02 📈 $PLTR 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 4% → 50% Vol: $400
Will Boeing (BA) beat quarterly earnings?	↓ -99.9%	40%	$BA	Extreme market pricing reflects profound operational uncertainty surrounding Boeing (BA). The bearish swing suggests deep structural doubts regarding production, quality control, and future earnings visibility. Shorting BA capitalizes on this persistent high risk.	12 hours ago
Trade Blueprint High $BA Extreme market pricing reflects profound operational uncertainty surrounding Boeing (BA). The bearish swing suggests deep structural doubts regarding production, quality control, and future earnings visibility. Shorting BA capitalizes on this persistent high risk. Entry $210.44 - $212.55 Target $190.35 Stop $225.24 📈 $BA 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 66% → 0% Vol: $1684
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on July 28?	↓ -99.0%	40%	$QQQ	Extreme market momentum suggests high risk appetite flow into technology and growth sectors, mirroring the bullish sentiment priced into ETH.	8 hours ago
Trade Blueprint High $QQQ Extreme market momentum suggests high risk appetite flow into technology and growth sectors, mirroring the bullish sentiment priced into ETH. Entry $678.65 - $685.47 Target $767.32 Stop $647.96 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 5% → 0% Vol: $15882
Will Solana reach $85 on July 27?	↓ -97.3%	39%	$QQQ	Failure of major crypto targets indicates cooling risk appetite; tech growth stocks (Nasdaq 100) are vulnerable to liquidity contraction.	23 hours ago
Trade Blueprint High $QQQ Failure of major crypto targets indicates cooling risk appetite; tech growth stocks (Nasdaq 100) are vulnerable to liquidity contraction. Entry $672.12 - $678.88 Target $732.92 Stop $705.90 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 2% → 0% Vol: $389
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	↓ -9.5%	38%	$NVDA	Despite minor cooling sentiment for the $100k target, underlying macro risk appetite remains high. Betting on continued tech outperformance capturing general bull market momentum.	23 hours ago
Trade Blueprint Speculative $NVDA Despite minor cooling sentiment for the $100k target, underlying macro risk appetite remains high. Betting on continued tech outperformance capturing general bull market momentum. Entry $195.96 - $197.92 Target $215.65 Stop $188.08 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 10% → 10% Vol: $2316573
Will Caesars Entertainment (CZR) beat quarterly earnings?	↓ -90.0%	36%	$MAR	The extreme negative pricing suggests overreaction following potential earnings disappointment; anticipating mean reversion bounce in cyclically linked consumer travel stocks.	4 hours ago
Trade Blueprint High $MAR The extreme negative pricing suggests overreaction following potential earnings disappointment; anticipating mean reversion bounce in cyclically linked consumer travel stocks. Entry $381.56 - $385.40 Target $419.91 Stop $368.14 📈 $CZR 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 0% → 0% Vol: $6286
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of July 27 2026?	↑ +89.7%	36%	$SPY	Strong positive swing momentum and implied confidence in S&P corporate earnings predict continued bullish upward trajectory into the next cycle.	16 minutes ago
Trade Blueprint High $SPY Strong positive swing momentum and implied confidence in S&P corporate earnings predict continued bullish upward trajectory into the next cycle. Entry $737.06 - $744.46 Target $851.87 Stop $718.54 📈 $SPY 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 14% → 28% Vol: $1855
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in July?	↓ -88.9%	36%	$TSLA	The sharp negative swing suggests overreaction and capitulation among bearish bettors; a contrarian rebound buy on cyclical demand failure is possible.	11 minutes ago
Trade Blueprint Speculative $TSLA The sharp negative swing suggests overreaction and capitulation among bearish bettors; a contrarian rebound buy on cyclical demand failure is possible. Entry $307.69 - $310.79 Target $355.63 Stop $286.05 📈 $TSLA 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 0% → 0% Vol: $5044
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	↓ -75.0%	31%	$XLY	Anticipation of multiple rate cuts strongly signals dovish monetary policy and increasing consumer spending power, benefiting discretionary retail.	16 minutes ago
Trade Blueprint High $XLY Anticipation of multiple rate cuts strongly signals dovish monetary policy and increasing consumer spending power, benefiting discretionary retail. Entry $111.73 - $112.85 Target $124.08 Stop $107.24 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 0% → 0% Vol: $83570
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $141 Week of July 27 2026?	↑ +76.3%	31%	$PLTR	Extreme implied movement and significant volume suggests a major momentum breakout event for the company.	21 minutes ago
Trade Blueprint High $PLTR Extreme implied movement and significant volume suggests a major momentum breakout event for the company. Entry $118.34 - $119.52 Target $135.58 Stop $111.20 📈 $PLTR 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 5% → 9% Vol: $558
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on July 28?	↑ +42.9%	17%	$QQQ	Crypto asset strength is a leading indicator of increasing systemic liquidity and risk-on sentiment; QQQ captures the technology sector receiving these capital inflows.	1 minute ago
Trade Blueprint High $QQQ Crypto asset strength is a leading indicator of increasing systemic liquidity and risk-on sentiment; QQQ captures the technology sector receiving these capital inflows. Entry $669.71 - $676.45 Target $726.93 Stop $642.79 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 3% → 4% Vol: $17244
Will Meta say "TikTok" during earnings call?	↑ +35.3%	14%	$META	Strong earnings call indicating robust ad spend resilience and successful integration of competitive AI features, reaffirming market dominance against external threats.	6 minutes ago
Trade Blueprint High $META Strong earnings call indicating robust ad spend resilience and successful integration of competitive AI features, reaffirming market dominance against external threats. Entry $590.69 - $596.63 Target $650.06 Stop $569.91 🤖 gemma4:e4b Shift: 8% → 12% Vol: $253