Polymarket Swings

Equity prediction market swing detection

Recent Swings

Updated: 1 minute ago • Threshold: ≥5%
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10? market thumbnail
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?
0% → 2% Vol: $1500
↑
+700.0%
Trade Idea
Following the Gemini prediction market increase, consider a short position in Alphabet (GOOGL). The surge suggests over-optimism regarding Gemini’s immediate adoption and competition within the Apple App Store, presenting a potential short-term bearish catalyst.
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on March 9? market thumbnail
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on March 9?
3% → 13% Vol: $1692
↑
+283.3%
Trade Idea
TSLA has experienced a significant upward swing, indicating strong bullish sentiment. Consider a short position on TSLA now, anticipating a potential correction as the market may have overreacted to the positive news.
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,000 (LOW) in March 2026? market thumbnail
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,000 (LOW) in March 2026?
7% → 13% Vol: $51782
↑
+75.9%
Trade Idea
Given the slight increase in SPX market predictions suggesting a potential downturn, consider shorting Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) – the company's valuation is sensitive to broader market weakness and tech sector sentiment. Maintain a tight stop-loss to manage risk as the prediction market remains volatile.
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10? market thumbnail
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?
6% → 2% Vol: $9725
↓
-75.0%
Trade Idea
With the prediction market dropping sharply, consider shorting Alibaba (BABA). The market may be overestimating ChatGPT's immediate dominance within the free app landscape, particularly given Apple's strategic focus on premium apps and user data.
Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 10? market thumbnail
Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?
0% → 0% Vol: $10593
↓
-66.7%
Trade Idea
Given the significant price drop in AnkiMobile Flashcards, consider shorting Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA). The failure of this prediction highlights potential risks within the broader mobile learning app market, impacting companies reliant on app store dominance.
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10? market thumbnail
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?
1% → 0% Vol: $971
↓
-94.4%
Trade Idea
Following the dramatic drop in Gemini’s Apple App Store prediction, consider a short position in Alphabet (GOOGL). The market is likely pricing in an overestimation of Gemini's immediate dominance, and a subsequent correction could be profitable.
Will Affirm Holdings (AFRM) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? market thumbnail
Will Affirm Holdings (AFRM) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?
6% → 3% Vol: $16261
↓
-38.9%
Trade Idea
With Affirm's likelihood of S&P 500 inclusion increasing, consider a long position in fintech stocks like PayPal (PYPL) or Adyen (ADY) which could benefit from increased market liquidity and potential correlation with Affirm.
Will Meta (META) close above $650 on March 9? market thumbnail
Will Meta (META) close above $650 on March 9?
17% → 25% Vol: $1515
↑
+47.1%
Trade Idea
Given the Meta prediction market decrease, consider a short position in META, anticipating further downside pressure if the stock struggles to maintain above $650. Leverage this bearish sentiment with a call option strategy for potential profit if the price declines.
Will Tesla dip to $300 in March? market thumbnail
Will Tesla dip to $300 in March?
8% → 11% Vol: $3788
↑
+46.7%
Trade Idea
Tesla (TSLA) is showing increased conviction around its resistance. Short a TSLA call option spread, betting on a pullback towards $280 before March ends, given the heightened bullish sentiment represented by the 11% price increase.
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 9 above $315? market thumbnail
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 9 above $315?
24% → 13% Vol: $559
↓
-44.7%
Trade Idea
Given the significant increase in Google (GOOGL) prediction market confidence, consider a short position in Alphabet (GOOG) if the stock approaches $320. This could capitalize on a potential pullback if the initial prediction proves inaccurate.
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? market thumbnail
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
1% → 1% Vol: $701577
↓
-15.4%
Trade Idea
Given the significant increase in Saudi Aramco's market cap probability, consider a long position in energy stocks like ExxonMobil (XOM) or Chevron (CVX) to capitalize on continued demand driven by Aramco’s potential dominance. Monitor the news closely for any further catalysts supporting this trend.
Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 4% on any day in Q1? market thumbnail
Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 4% on any day in Q1?
9% → 11% Vol: $10523
↑
+21.3%
Trade Idea
Given the significant increase in the prediction of S&P 500 gains (8%), consider a long position in broad market ETFs like SPY or IVV. This reflects an optimistic outlook and could capitalize on continued upward momentum, though volatility remains a risk.
Will Paprika Recipe Manager 3 be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 10? market thumbnail
Will Paprika Recipe Manager 3 be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?
0% → 0% Vol: $1969
↓
-25.0%
Trade Idea
Given the extreme, albeit brief, price increase in the Paprika Recipe Manager prediction market, consider a short position in Appsolute Software (APPRO). This suggests speculative interest in recipe apps, and a potential correction is warranted as the prediction remains unfulfilled.
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? market thumbnail
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
0% → 1% Vol: $35990
↑
+22.2%
Trade Idea
With the Databricks IPO market cap prediction dropping sharply, consider a short position in Snowflake (SNOW). Snowflake competes directly with Databricks in the data lakehouse market and this shift in market sentiment suggests potential downside risk for SNOW.
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on March 9? market thumbnail
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on March 9?
14% → 12% Vol: $8972
↓
-20.7%
Trade Idea
Given the significant increase in Google (GOOGL) prediction market sentiment, consider a short position in Alphabet (GOOG). The increased optimism suggests a potential overreaction, and a pullback is warranted, particularly if earnings reports don't fully validate the bullish shift.
Will Amazon dip to $132 in March? market thumbnail
Will Amazon dip to $132 in March?
4% → 3% Vol: $11031
↓
-20.0%
Trade Idea
Given the slight increase in the probability of Amazon dipping to $132, consider a short position in Amazon (AMZN) utilizing a credit spread. Monitor closely for any negative earnings reports or macroeconomic headwinds that could exacerbate the downward pressure, potentially triggering a further drop.
Will Current Reader be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 10? market thumbnail
Will Current Reader be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?
0% → 0% Vol: $1557
↓
-25.0%
Trade Idea
Following the complete collapse of the Current Reader prediction, initiate a short position in News Corp (NWS). The unsuccessful prediction suggests declining interest in this specific reading app category and potentially broader digital publishing trends.
Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 10? market thumbnail
Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?
0% → 0% Vol: $1886
↓
-25.0%
Trade Idea
Following the complete reversal of the Procreate Pocket prediction, short Apple (AAPL) – specifically focusing on the iPad segment. The failure of Procreate to reach #1 suggests a temporary overestimation of iPad app market dominance and a potential correction.